OUR METHOD
We do not tell you who wins. We tell you how often.
A forecast is not a prophecy. It is a frequency — and a frequency can be counted.
The distinction everything rests on
Anyone claiming to know how a match ends is claiming too much. Football is beautiful partly because it cannot be calculated.
Something else can be calculated: how often a particular event has occurred in comparable situations. That is what we turn into a number.
When an analysis says 70 %, it means we are wrong three times in ten. That is not the small print. That is the statement.
SELF-IMPOSED
Four rules we keep — especially when it hurts
- 01
The model may not see the future
Every calculation for a match uses only fixtures already played before that kickoff. It sounds obvious and it is not: it is the most common way a statistic lies to itself and looks magnificent in hindsight.
- 02
The tip is frozen before the ball rolls
Published with a timestamp and unchangeable afterwards. No sharpening at half time, no quiet deletion in the evening. What is out stays out — above all when it goes wrong.
- 03
Two sources have to agree
Results come from several independent sources and are held against each other. Where they disagree we do not score the match — we flag it and look.
- 04
When something is missing, we do not guess
Sometimes a detail statistic never arrives. The analysis then reads “under review” until it does. If it stays missing for a week the analysis is discarded — counted neither as a hit nor as a miss. It simply does not count.
HOW IT IMPROVES
A new version has to earn its place
Every day the system works out where it was weak. It drafts variants and runs them against the version in use — on matches neither of them has ever seen.
If the variant wins, it takes over. If it does not, it is discarded and the attempt stays in the record.
There is no path by which a new version rises on goodwill.
AND THIS WE KEEP
A recipe that stays with us
Which quantities enter the calculation, how they are weighted, and when an analysis is published at all — none of that is written down here. It is months of work and it stays ours.
What you get instead is worth more than a look at the formula: the result, day after day, with every defeat in it.
A method you can count for yourself is one you need not believe.